DnB Markets’ Torbjørn Kjus predicts oil prices will decline slightly in 2012, and believes they will end on an average of 109 dollars per barrel for 2012. He attributes this to a danger of an overproduction of oil in the second quarter.
“It appears that non-OPEC countries will increase their production by 800,000 barrels per day, despite problems in Syria and southern Sudan. In addition, Iraq has increased production because of improved infrastructure, and Libya is back in production,” he told Aftenbladet.“If you include declining demand in the U.S. and Europe, we are still facing an overproduction of oil of 800,000 barrels per day. We could be seeing oil prices of nearer 100 dollars a barrel if this trend continues.”