“We think that oil demand will peak by 2030 and decline thereafter,” said chief analyst at Statoil, Eirik Wærness.

Statoil presented its annual forecast for global economics and energy markets - Energy Perspectives 2012, Thursday.

According to Mr Wærness, who penned the report with analyst Kyrre M Knudsen and chief economist Klaus Mohn, Statoil expects a yearly growth of around 1 million barrels a day towards the 2020s. Demand will fall slightly during that decade, before leveling off around 2030.

The three believe lower economic growth, higher efficiency and increased use of electricity and gas will be the drivers causing demand for oil to decline after 2030.

Gas is the future

Statoil analyses predict this demand will soon reach its peak, but gas is the future.

“Global gas demand is projected to increase by 60 per cent by 2040. Positive drivers include significant new available supply at moderate costs and environmental policies," stated Mr Wærness.

The company also believes the energy mix will become increasingly greener.

Growth will be in renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal energy. “Fossil fuels comprise about 80 percent of the energy mix today. We expect that the percentage will decrease to just above 70 percent by 2040. At the same time there’ll be a reduction in carbon intensity because gas will constitute an increasing proportion of fossil fuels,” Mr Wærness declared.

Renewable energy will grow

He believes the proportion of renewable energy will grow from 13 percent to 20 percent during the same period.

“Growth will be in renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and geothermal energy. We expect that this market will grow by 7.4 percent a year,” he said.

Nonetheless, the report shows that it will not just be the demand for oil and gas that increases over the next 15 years.

“We also believe that CO2 emissions will rise until 2030 and then fall rapidly,” concluded Mr Wærness.

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